Palladium (XPD) fell sharply on Tuesday, coming under heavy pressure alongside other industrial metals amid geopolitical concerns tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between the United States and China.

Key factors behind the decline:

Supply disruptions and geopolitical risks

Rising tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to some mining operations fueled concerns over supply. Paradoxically, however, these fears did not translate into strong buying interest. Instead, they added to market volatility while sellers maintained control.

Weaker US support for electric vehicles

Diminishing political momentum behind electric vehicle incentives in the United States weighed on sentiment. Palladium is heavily used in automotive catalytic converters, so any slowdown in supportive policy measures puts pressure on industrial demand expectations.

Clear technical pressure

The drop below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages sent a negative signal to short-term traders. The ADX indicator also reflects weak trend strength but with a bearish bias, suggesting that downward momentum is not yet strong enough for a decisive reversal, though sellers remain dominant.

Analyst views: divided outlook

Anton Kharitonov of Traders Union sees the break below short- and medium-term averages as a warning sign, identifying $1,715 as a key support level. A move below that could open the door to further losses, emphasizing that any current rebound appears fragile as long as sellers control the market.

Viktoras Karabytjank of Traders Union takes a more constructive stance, noting that weekly indicators such as RSI and MACD remain supportive over the longer term. He views the range between $1,700 and $1,750 as a consolidation phase within a broader long-term uptrend.

Market analyst Parshwa Turakhia focuses on the short term, arguing that indicators such as Stoch RSI and CCI point to near-term oversold conditions that could allow quick rebounds toward $1,750, though high volatility is likely to persist.

In US trading, March palladium futures were down 7.5% at $1,630.5 per ounce as of 19:18 GMT.

The global oil market is facing a worst-case set of outcomes as the war between the United States and Iran expands across large parts of the Middle East, with no clear off-ramp in sight. That raises the risk of prolonged supply disruptions that could slow global economic growth.

What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy supply

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stalled, the world’s most important maritime corridor for oil shipments, after shipping companies took precautionary steps and suspended passage through the chokepoint. Energy consultancy data indicates that roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil exports passed through the strait during 2025. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most sensitive routes in global energy trade, linking the Gulf to the Indian Ocean.

Iran has also widened its retaliatory strikes to include regional energy facilities. Qatar announced a suspension of liquefied natural gas production after key facilities were hit by drone attacks. This matters because about 20% of global LNG exports come from Gulf countries, particularly Qatar, and move through the same highly sensitive sea lanes.

Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said the prior assumption that an unprecedented disruption was unlikely has been proven wrong. She added that the war has already produced a near-complete halt in shipping through the strait in what she described as one of the most turbulent moments in modern maritime trade.

Crude prices rose more than 6% on Monday after jumping more than 12% earlier in the same day, while European natural gas prices surged more than 40%. Prices are expected to rise further depending on how long the war lasts and whether Iran targets energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

In the United States, drivers are expected to face higher fuel costs in the coming days. Gasoline prices could rise by $0.10 to $0.30 per gallon over the next week as crude costs climb.

Oil and gas price scenarios

Commodity analysts expect Brent crude to move above $100 per barrel, while European natural gas prices could exceed €60 per megawatt-hour if Tehran hardens its stance and continues attacks on energy facilities in neighboring countries, according to Bank of America. The bank also said a prolonged disruption in the strait could add another $40 to $80 per barrel to Brent.

If the war lasts more than three weeks, Gulf countries could run out of storage capacity as unsold crude accumulates without an export outlet, potentially forcing some producers to cut output. In that scenario, Brent could reach $120 per barrel, according to JPMorgan estimates.

If Iran imposes a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz using naval mines and anti-ship missiles, prices could spike sharply toward $200 per barrel, according to Deutsche Bank.

Historical comparison and other risks

The last time oil reached $100 per barrel was after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when US gasoline prices hit record levels above $5 per gallon.

Kaneva warned that a breakdown of Iran’s political system could pose an even larger supply risk. Iran produces more than 3 million barrels per day, and that output could be threatened if internal unrest or civil conflict erupts, a scenario that could push oil prices up by more than 70% in such cases.

A downside scenario

If fighting ends quickly, oil could return to a $60 to $70 per barrel range, according to Bank of America, especially if de-escalation happens within just a few days.

However, the United States and Iran still appear entrenched in their positions. Former Iranian national security adviser Ali Larijani rejected negotiations with the United States, saying the joint US-Israeli attack pushed the region into an unnecessary war.

US stock indices fell broadly at the start of trading on Tuesday as war and military operations between the United States and Iran escalated.

The US-Israeli strikes resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in what marks a major turning point for the Islamic Republic and one of the most significant developments since 1979.

In response, Iranian officials vowed a strong retaliation, heightening fears of a wider regional conflict, particularly as explosions were reported in several Gulf cities.

In early trading, as of 14:51 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.1% (or 1,009 points) to 47,895. The broader S&P 500 declined 1.8% (or 137 points) to 6,744, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1% (or 467 points) to 22,282.

Heavy losses at the open of Wall Street as Dow plunges more than 1,000 points

US stock indices fell sharply at the start of Tuesday’s session amid escalating war and military operations between the United States and Iran.

The US-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, marking a pivotal moment for the Islamic Republic and one of the most consequential events since 1979.

Iranian officials pledged a forceful response, increasing concerns about a broader regional escalation, particularly after reports of explosions in multiple Gulf cities.

By 14:51 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2.1% (1,009 points) at 47,895, the S&P 500 had fallen 1.8% (137 points) to 6,744, and the Nasdaq Composite was lower by 2.1% (467 points) at 22,282.

Bitcoin held steady against the US dollar on Tuesday morning, posting a slight gain after a sharp sell-off over the weekend amid continued escalation between the United States and Iran.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value had fallen to nearly $63,000 during the weekend, as investors reduced exposure to high-risk assets and shifted toward safe havens such as gold and the US dollar. It later recovered part of its losses to trade just below the $67,000 level.

Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has lost around one-third of its value, while the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by about $350 billion compared with levels a month ago, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Market turbulence this week followed US strikes on Iran, which reportedly resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Tehran to launch a series of attacks on US bases across the Middle East.

The escalating conflict has heightened global economic uncertainty, particularly after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, driving crude prices higher. Rising energy costs are fueling concerns that inflation could accelerate, especially in countries heavily dependent on oil and gas imports.

Ethereum, the cryptocurrency tied to the Ethereum network, rose about 0.9% to trade just below the $2,000 level.

Meanwhile, shares of crypto-related companies did not mirror the rebound in pre-market US trading, with Coinbase and Strategy — the software firm holding large Bitcoin reserves — appearing set to open the session lower.